Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Typical Holiday Hangover

Today, as well as the rest of the week will be very slow. This IS NOT THE TIME TO BE AGGRESSIVE. I recall consulting for a particular institution, I would go into the office during this time of year as well as the period between Christmas and New Years. I knew that nearly no executives or managers would be in yet, the only employees would be those i like to refer to as the "JV Squad." These employees would have basic control, enough of which allowed me to capture the disparities in the markets; for the most part I would utilize the light volume to push out those who were on the opposite side, short or long, put or call. Today, it would seem that the upside should be favored, when the volume is this light pushing the market higher is not entirely impossible. The biggest lesson to learn which i embed in my subscribers minds is that in times such as these you need to express expansion of your analysis, allow positions room and adjust as the disparities will be played. Next week will resume normal trading, do not be an amateur in this environment. Express discipline and be prepared to take profits and additional positions when the time is right. This IS NOT A TIME TO BE AGGRESSIVE, no big money liquidity adding player is being aggressive unless they are taking the small fish out right now - I know because I did it.
Bottom Line: it is your choice, would you like to trade/invest like a big money fund and make big money, or get your money taken? You can be a "small fish" and trade like the big boys, all you need is an understanding of their tricks and tools. Step inside.

Index trader: plays considered would be SDS from Fridays close and similar short funds.
Individual Stocks: AMZN continues to show a decent short opportunity. Although it may remain range bound with light volume.
Overall Sentiment: Markets could go lower as they encounter profit taking, however the volume is on the forefront as it is and will remain very low. While the volume remains low further upside is favored. Create your short list and be ready to act. I will inform all subscribers when the time is prime.

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